تحلیل عدم قطعیت نتایج مدل HEC-RAS در شبیه‌سازی پارامترهای هیدرولیکی جریان رودخانه کارون با رویکرد مونت کارلو

نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل (پژوهشی)

نویسندگان

1 1- استادیار گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ولی‌عصر (عج) رفسنجان،ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری سازه‌های آبی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران

چکیده

پارامتر ضریب زبری در مدل‌سازی هیدرولیکی جریان رودخانه‌ها به سادگی قابل اندازه‌گیری نیست و تعیین آن همواره با عدم قطعیت و خطا در نتایج همراه است. به همین منظور در این مقاله از رویکرد شبیه‌سازی مونت-کارلو برای تحلیل عدم قطعیت نتایج مدل هیدرولیکی HEC-RAS در بازه ملاثانی تا فارسیات رودخانه کارون به طول 105 کیلومتر استفاده شده است. با توسعه یک ماژول محاسباتی کنترلی و ترکیب آن با هسته محاسباتی HEC-RAS اجرای خودکار فرآیند مونت-کارلو فراهم شد. شبیه‌سازی3۰۰۰ نمونه مونت کارلو براساس توزیع احتمال ضریب مانینگ انجام شد و تحلیل گرافیکی و کمی‌سازی نتایج عدم قطعیت روی پارامترهای هیدرولیکی خروجی مدل صورت گرفت. نتایج نشان‌دهنده عدم قطعیت زیاد با پهنای باند اطمینان بزرگتر از 1 تا 11، در دبی حداکثر سیلاب 3000 و دبی متوسط روزانه 457 مترمکعب بر ثانیه است. برای پالایش شبیه‌سازی‌های مونت-کارلوی کارآمد و غیرکارآمد از معیار شاخص NSE>0.75 در تحلیل هدفمند عدم قطعیت زبری بر مبنای کران‌های عدم قطعیت 5 و 95 درصد استفاده شد. در این حالت پهنای باند عدم قطعیت (d-factor ) هر شش پارامتر تراز سطح آب، عرض سطح آب، عدد فرود، سرعت جریان، تنش برشی و توان جریان، بعنوان متغیرهای پاسخ، کمتر از 1 شد که نشان دهنده کارآمدی رویکرد به‌گزینی ضریب زبری است. نتایج تحلیل عدم قطعیت نشان داد عدم قطعیت‌های پنهان در نتایج مدل HEC-RAS بالا است و در صورت تحلیل احتمالاتی روی نتایج می‌توان در مطالعات بهسازی، لایروبی و احیای رودخانه‌هایی همچون کارون به نتایج اطمینان و اعتماد بالاتری بخشید و پهنه‌های سطوح سیل‌گیری احتمالاتی را استخراج نمود.

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