انجمن هیدرولیک ایران نشریه علمی هیدرولیک 2345-4237 3 1 2008 05 21 Simulation of Urmia Lake Level Changes and Its Uncertainty and Sensitivity to Water Budget Components شبیه سازی، تحلیل حساسیت و عدم قطعیت تغییرات تراز آب دریاچه ارومیه نسبت به مولفه های بیلان آبی آن 45 55 85448 10.30482/jhyd.2008.85448 FA مجید دلاور 0000-0003-3897-8007 سعید مرید دانشگاه تربیت مدرس دانشکده کشاورزی مهدی شفیعی فر Journal Article 2008 03 21 This research work is an attempt to simulate and analyze monthly water level changes in Urmia Lake.<br />To this end, water budget, multiple regression and artificial neural networks (ANNs) approaches have<br />been investigated, using monthly data of effective components of water budget equation such as input<br />discharge, average rainfall and average evaporation. Furthermore, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis<br />were employed to compare the simulation methods capabilities. The results suggested that ANNs<br />model using monthly discharge, rainfall and evaporation as inputs gave best results with less<br />sensitivity, but greater uncertainty. https://jhyd.iha.ir/article_85448_ec9257e066b6ca9d278e4ba4c00d8a21.pdf