%0 Journal Article
%T Coastal Flood Hazard Analysis for Bandar Anzali Coast Considering Joint Probability of Significant Events
%J Journal of Hydraulics
%I Iranian Hydraulic Association
%Z 2345-4237
%A Olfateh, M.
%A Shafieefar, M.
%D 2013
%\ 01/20/2013
%V 7
%N 4
%P 1-18
%! Coastal Flood Hazard Analysis for Bandar Anzali Coast Considering Joint Probability of Significant Events
%R 10.30482/jhyd.2013.85352
%X Communities accommodated along shorelines have always been under devastating threats from thesea/ocean such as coastal flooding. Mitigation planning against such threads demands a wellunderstanding of the threadâ€™s nature. In addition to the physical understanding, such planning isalways based on statistical representation of the thread generating events. Coastal hazard analysis isthe method of estimating such statistical representations based on the physics and time history of theevents and so, it is the preliminary step toward hazard mitigation planning. Methods that combinecontributing physical processes have weekly considered the dependence between the physicalprocesses. Using proper joint probability statistical methods, rational combinations of events can beestimated on the ground of their history. Copula functions are a group of functions that generate suchcombinations. Estimating the marginal distribution of the events, Copula functions represent the jointprobability of the events based on their historical joint occurrence. This method is used in this paper toderive the joint probability of storm surge and wave height for Bandar Anzali coasts. The ad-hocmethod of superimposing the significant events is also pursued for comparison. The marginaldistributions are chosen from GEV, Weibull, Gumble and Lognormal probability distributions. Themodel parameters are estimated using the Maximum Likelihood method, and the goodness of fit isevaluated using the Root Mean Square Error criterion. Deep water waves with return period of 20, 50and 100 years in addition to the joint probability results are transferred to the beach using the spectralcoefficient method. Considering wave setup and wave run up, the final inundation levels are estimatedand the inundated regions are plotted.
%U https://jhyd.iha.ir/article_85352_fd08355c9f36b429bfe97330cd17a077.pdf