تحلیل عدم قطعیت در برآورد سیلاب با مدل HEC-HMS در حوضة آبریز سد جامیشان

نوع مقاله: مقاله کامل

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری عمران- مهندسی آب، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران

2 استادیار دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران

چکیده

برآورد سیلاب با عدم قطعیت‌هایی ناشی از تغییرات متغیرهای ورودی مدل بارش- رواناب مانند بارش، پارامترهای مدل مانند تلفات و ساختار مدل همراه است. برآورد سیلاب طراحی با در نظر گرفتن عدم قطعیت‌های متغیرهای تصادفی مؤثر بر آن، یکی از مباحث مهم در طراحی سازه‌های هیدرولیکی است. در این تحقیق، با استفاده از مدل آماری تولید بارش (RPG)، مدل بارش-رواناب HEC-HMS و روش مونت کارلو، عدم قطعیت متغیرهای ورودی مدل بارش–رواناب نظیر الگوی توزیع زمانی بارش، عمق بارش، مدت بارش و پارامترهای مدل بارش–رواناب تک واقعه HEC-HMS مانند جریان پایه، تلفات و هیدروگراف واحد ارزیابی می‌شود. یکی دیگر از موارد بررسی شده در این تحقیق، نحوة انتشار و چگونگی همبستگی عدم قطعیت متغیرهای ورودی و پارامترهای مدل HEC-HMS در گزینه‌های مختلف است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که بیشترین تأثیر بر عدم قطعیت بیشینه و حجم سیلاب، ناشی از عدم قطعیت مدت بارش، الگوی توزیع زمانی بارش و تلفات است.

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