تحلیل ریسک روگذری سد جامیشان با استفاده از منحنی بارش آستانه روگذری و شبیه‌سازی مونت‌کارلو

نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل (پژوهشی)

نویسنده

دانشگاه آزاد علوم وتحقیقات

چکیده

برآورد ریسک روگذری سدهای خاکی از مسائل مهم و مؤثر در تعیین ارتفاع سد و ظرفیت آبگذری سیستم تخلیه سیلاب محسوب می‌شود. حالت ایده‌ال برآورد ریسک روگذری، در نظر گرفتن تمام متغیرهای تصادفی و مؤثر بر روگذری می‌باشد. البته در نظر گرفتن کلیه متغیرهای تصادفی مؤثر و برآورد ریسک روگذری با الگوریتم‌هایی مانند مونت‌کارلو بسیار زمان‌بر و بعضی مواقع غیرممکن است. در این تحقیق سعی شده است با استفاده از تئوری بارش آستانه و تلفیق آن با روش مونت‌کارلو شرطی، گام مهمی در کاهش زمان شبیه‌سازی‌ها برداشته شود. نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد با پذیرش 6 درصد خطا در محاسبه ریسک روگذری سد جامیشان، زمان محاسبات در حدود 29 ساعت کمتر می شود و یا به عبارت دیگر راندمان الگوریتم شرطی معرفی شده در این تحقیق 7 برابر بیشتر از روش مونت‌کارلو معمولی در تحلیل ریسک روگذری سد جامیشان می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


شرافتی، ا. و ذهبیون، ب. (1392). تحلیل ریسک روگذری سد با در نظر گرفتن عدم قطعیت‌های هیدرولوژیکی و هیدرولیکی. مجله هیدرولیک. دوره 8، شماره 1، ص.ص. 1-17
 
Alfieri, L., Velasco, D. and Thielen, J. (2011). "Flash flood detection through a multi-stage probabilistic warning system for heavy precipitation events". Adv. Geosci. 29, 69–75.
Amadio, P., Mancini1, M., Menduni, G., Rabuffetti, D. and Ravazzani, G. (2003). "A real time floodforecasting system based on rainfall thresholds working on the Arno watershed: definition and reliability analysis". Proceedings of the 5rd EGS Plinius Conference held at Ajaccio, Corsica, France.
Annunziati, A., Focardi, A., Focardi, P., Martello, S., and Vannocci, P. (1999). "Analysis of the rainfall thresholds that induced debris flows in the area of Apuan Alps-Tuscany", Italy, Plinius Conference ’99: Mediterranean Storms, Ed. Bios., 485–493.
Bacchini, M. and Zannoni, A. (2003). "Relations between rainfall and triggering of debris-flow: a case study of Cancia (Dolomites, Northeastern Italy)". Nat. Hazard Earth. Sys. 3: 71–79.
Borga, M., Boscolo, P., Zanon, F. and Sangati, M., (2007). "Hydrometeorological analysis of the August 29, 2003 flash flood in the eastern Italian Alps.". Journal of Hydrometeorology 8 (5), 1049–1067.
Carpenter, T. M., Sperfslage J. A., Georgakakos K. P., Sweeney,T., and Fread, D. L. (1999). "National threshold runoff estimation utilizing GIS in support of operational flash flood warning systems", J. Hydrol., 224, 21–44.
Collier, C. G. (2007). "Flash flood forecasting: What are the limits of predictability?", Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 3–23.
Dahal, R.K. and Hasegawa, S., )2008(. "Representative rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Nepal Himalaya", Geomorphology, 100 (3-4), 429-443.
Georgakakos, K. P. (2006). "Analytical results for operational flash flood guidance", J. Hydrol., 317, 81–103.
Golian S., Saghafian B. and Maknoon R. (2010). "Derivation of probabilistic thresholds of spatially distributed rainfall for flood forecasting", Water Resources Management, Vol. 24, No. 13, pp. 3547-3559.
Goodarzi E., Mirzaei M., Shui, L.T. and Ziaei, M. (2011). "Evaluation dam overtopping risk based on univariate and bivariate flood frequency analysis. Hydrol". Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 8, 9757–9796.
Crosta, G. B. and Frattini, P. (2000). "Rainfall thresholds for soil slip and debris flow triggering", Proceedings of the EGS 2nd Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms, Ed. Bios.
Hsu, Y.C, Tung, Y.K. and Kuo, J.T. (2011). "Evaluation of dam overtopping probability induced by flood and wind". Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess. 25:35–49.
International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD). (1973). Lessons from dam incidents (reduced edition). ICOLD, Paris.
Javelle, P., Fouchier, C., Arnaud, P., and Lavabre, J.(2010). "Flash flood warning at ungauged locations using radar rainfall and antecedent soil moisture estimations", J. Hydrol., 394, 267–274.
Kuo, J.T., Yen, B.C., Hsu, Y.C, and Lin, H.F. (2007). "Risk analysis for dam overtopping—Feitsui reservoir as a case study". Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 133 (8), PP. 955–963
Kuo, J.T., Hsu, Y.C., Tung, Y.K.,Yeh, K.C., and Wu, J.D., (2008). "Dam overtopping risk assessment considering inspection program", Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 22 (3), PP. 303–313.
Kwon, H.H. and Moon, Y. (2006). "Improvement of overtopping risk evaluations using probabilistic concepts for existing dams", Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 20, PP. 223–237.
Martina, M. L. V., Todini, E., and Libralon, A. (2005). "A Bayesian decision approach to rainfall thresholds based flood warning", Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 413–426.
Mendicino, G. (2006). "Rainfall and hydrometric thresholds for flood warning. the Esaro river case study", Proceedings of the Amhy-Friend International Workshop on Hydrological Extremes, University of Calabria, Cosenza (Italy), May 3-4.
Montesarchio, V., Lombardo, F., and Napolitano, F. (2009). "Rainfall thresholds and flood warning:
an operative case study", Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 135–144.
Montesarchio, V., Ridolfi, E., Russo, F. and Napolitano, F. (2011). "Rainfall threshold definition using an entropy decision approach and radar data". Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 11, 2061–2074.
Neary, D. G. and Swift, L. W. (1987). "Rainfall thresholds for triggering a debris flow avalanching event in the southern Appalachian Mountains", Rew. Eng. Geol., 7, 81–95.
Norbiato, D., Borga, M., Degli Esposti, S., Gaume, E. and Anquetin, S., (2008). "Flash flood warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture conditions: An assessment for gauged and ungauged basins". Journal of Hydrology 362 (3-4), 274–290.
Oosterbaan, R.J. (1994). Frequency and regression analysis. drainage principles and applications, Chapter 6. International Institute for Land Reclamation and Improvement, Wageningen
Paik, K (2008). "Analytical derivation of reservoir routing and hydrological risk evaluation of detention basins", Journal of Hydrology 352, pp. 191– 201.
Sharafati, A., and Zahabiyoun, B. (2014). "Rainfall threshold curves extraction by considering rainfall-runoff model uncertainty". Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, 39(10), 6835-6849.
USACE )1998(. HEC-1 flood hydrograph package user’s manual. Davis, CA: Hydrologic Engineering Centre.
Thompson K.D., Stedinger, J.R. and Heath. D.C. (1997). "Evaluation and presentation of dam failure and flood risks", Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 123 (4), pp. 216-227.
Yanmaz, A.M. (2000). "Overtopping risk assessment in river diversion facility design", Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 27(2). PP.319-326
Yenigun, K. and Erkek, C. (2007). "Reliability in dams and the effects of spillway dimensions on risk levels". Water Resources Management , Vol. 21, No. 4, pp. 747-760.
Zhao, B., Tung, Y.K, Yeh, K.C. and Yang, J.C., (1997). "Reliability analysis of hydraulic structures considering unit hydrograph uncertainty", Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics, 11, pp. 33-50.